A proposal backed by Economy Minister Philipp Roesler to limit total installations and introduce a quick one-time subsidy cut of about 35 percent found support in both parties but didn’t achieve unanimous backing, said Klaus Breil, a lawmaker with the Free Democratic Party junior coalition partner.

“The meeting ended without result,” Breil said by phone after the meeting last night. “This delay means we’re headed toward installations of 4 gigawatts through April as subsidies are currently way too generous.”

The comments underscore tensions inside Merkel’s government over support for renewable energy, which provides a fifth of Germany’s electricity. Roesler’s proposal goes too far for Environment Minister Norbert Roettgen, of Merkel’s Christian Democrats, who is seeking to increase the frequency of subsidy cuts but has in the past opposed a fixed limit.

Germany last year installed a record 7.5 gigawatts, more than double the government’s target, making the nation the world’s largest market for the technology.

An installation cap may threaten German solar companies such as Q-Cells and Conergy AG, which are already struggling with rising competition from China where the world’s three largest panel makers are based. Reducing support also may undermine the government’s efforts to develop more low-carbon power sources to replace nuclear stations that Merkel plans to close by 2022.

“If the government implements Roesler’s plans, the energy transformation is bound to fail,” Carsten Koernig, head of the BSW-Solar lobby, said in an e-mailed statement.

Horst Meierhofer, another Free Democratic Party lawmaker, said a majority of coalition lawmakers would back incentivizing solar power for own consumption instead of feeding it into the grid, cutting support for large-scale solar power plants and setting a fixed end date for solar subsidies.

Source: Bloomberg

EON plans to build at least three offshore wind projects, including the 1 billion-euro Amrumbank West farm in the North Sea, Dusseldorf-based EON said in an e-mailed statement today. Siemens AG, Europe’s biggest engineering company, will supply the the 288-megawatt plant with 80 of its turbines.

“Renewables are a cornerstone of our strategy, and offshore wind is one of EON’s growth areas,” Chief Executive Officer Johannes Teyssen said in the statement. “We intend to commission a new offshore wind farm every 18 months.”

Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, seeks to install 10,000 megawatts of sea-based wind turbines this decade as it raises the share of renewables and phases out atomic energy. Utilities including EON and RWE AG are selling assets and cutting jobs to lower costs and boost profit margins as the nuclear exit removes revenue streams.

EON is cutting as many as 11,000 positions and announced a 64 percent slide in nine-month profit, in part because of the phase-out.

The utility plans a 219-megawatt wind farm off the U.K. and a 48-megawatt facility off Sweden’s southern Baltic Sea coast. Both projects, which have a combined cost of about 970 million euros, will use turbines supplied by Vestas Wind Systems AS, EON said.

Japan’s Fukushima Dai-Ichi disaster in March spurred Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government to revise its nuclear energy policy with a plan to shut the country’s 17 reactors by 2022.

"We have recorded an increase in capacity of around 5,200 MW in the last twelve months. This means that tariff payments for PV installations which start operation from 1 January 2012 will be 15 percent lower than the current rate. The increase of 5,200 MW is significantly less than the 7,800 MW we recorded in the comparable period between October 2009 and September 2010. The flexible cap system, which aims to limit the costs of photovoltaic expansion, has certainly contributed to this development", said Matthias Kurth, Bundesnetzagentur President.

The Bundesnetzagentur calculates the feed-in tariffs and degression rates for the following year in accordance with the provisions of the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG). These stipulate that the rates for new PV installations decrease continuously. Payment for electricity from PV installations is made under the so-called flexible cap system in which, starting with an annual base degression of 9 percent, the degression rate changes depending on actual PV expansion.

The EEG includes several thresholds for greater or lesser degression. Between 1 October 2010 and 30 September 2011, the Bundesnetzagentur recorded an increase in PV installations above the statutory threshold of 4,500 MW. Feed-in tariffs will therefore decrease by a further six percentage points from 1 January 2012, a reduction of 15 percent in total. This would have increased to 18 percent had the threshold of 5,500 MW been exceeded, and a maximum reduction of 24 percent would have occurred if the value had been above 7,500 MW.

For the 2011 calendar year there was an increase of around 3,400 MW, according to the information provided by the generators to the Bundesnetzagentur between January and the end of September. As yet there are no estimates for the figures for October to December 2011. Further information on the degression rates and feed-in tariffs, and on the data provided, can be found on the Bundesnetzagentur website.

Following recently published figures of the Top 10 of the world’s biggest PV markets for 2010 and previous years, it is interesting to see what will this Top 10 look like in 2014?

If we look back 3 years, we can see how unpredictable market dynamics are. After all, who would have believed that Italy would have turned out to be the world’s largest PV market in 2011? Who would have believed that Spain would have fallen out of the Top 10 in 2011, after being the world’s biggest market in 2008? And what about the global economic situation and other international developments impacting the solar industry and market developments...? It is in fact anyone’s guess when it comes to looking three years ahead... But it’s fun to try - so here is my best guess:

Market Size in 2014 [MW/Year]

1. Germany - 6500 MW
2. Italy - 5500 MW
3. USA - 4500 MW
4. Japan - 3300 MW
5. India - 3000 MW
6. China - 2000 MW
7. Australia - 1400 MW
8. France - 1100 MW
9. Spain - 800 MW
10. Greece - 750 MW

1. Germany

When Germans build cars, they make the best. Why would that be different with PV? Germany is the most developed and experienced market in PV, and the country has the world’s best PV business infrastructure, with thousands of PV companies.

Germans have a great ability for technological and business innovations, have a green drive and clear renewable energy goals. All of which are the right ingredients for staying at the top, even after the FiT era.

The expected dip in sales in 2011 is probably just a temporary phase, during which Germans are preparing for grid parity in 2012/2013. Being one of the world’s most stable economies, I expect solid market growth, which will be fuelled by the German attitude, “My green neighbor has PV, so I want/must have it too.” Market saturation is still far away, so there is plenty of room for further market growth. International companies believe in the future of German customers too: they are lining up to sponsor German football teams. Like in football, Germans always play in the top league. 

2. Italy

Italy is Italy and things are done differently in Italy. Five years ago a tiny market of 11 MW, the Italian market will be 500 times bigger than in 2006 and become the world’s largest market in 2011.

Italians are creative, impatient and like speed. Plus, the Italian market is attractive – and you can’t teach  the Italians anything about attractiveness... Maybe the market will face a little fallback after the record year 2011, but I expect them to bounce back, reaching the goal of 20 GW cumulative installed PV power even before 2014.

High irradiance figures combined with high energy prices are helping to bring Italy closer to grid parity this year – or at least next year – in the residential market. Some additional taxes or levies on the energy price to finance the feed-in tariff will do the rest. Italy will definitely remain a Top 3 market by 2014. My guess is that, even without a FiT, they will reach 20 GW.

Italy is an ideal market and base for new business and financing models based on grid parity circumstances. The business infrastructure is already in place. All major PV players have established Italian branches – and not because of the nice cars! Italy is a market for now and the future.

3. USA

The USA will become the world’s biggest PV market, the only question is when... not yet – but maybe in 2014. The US market might grow at least 50% per year and the potential is enormous with 50 States. But, as per Europe, every State has its own policy(makers) and federal policy is not as sustainable as PV systems themselves.

At the present time, most States still have a small market size; less than one-tenth that of Belgium. By 2014, several Sunny Desert States will be contributing, with some very large-scale projects (e.g. California, Arizona, Texas, Nevada, New Mexico), and several other States will have well-developed residential and commercial market segments (e.g. New Jersey).

But, if the economy is up, the dollar strong, Democrats still in charge, paperwork for PV reduced and the federal tax credit still available, the USA may well become the world’s number one market even sooner.  

4. Japan

The shift from nuclear to renewable energy will help to make the Land of the Rising Sun an increasing PV market. After almost following in the steps of the Samurai by killing its own leading market position a few years ago, Japan is now on the way back to the top. The high energy prices and rapidly decreasing solar module prices help a lot.

Also helpful are the mature domestic PV industry, the very well-developed PV business infrastructure – and let’s not forget public awareness. Japanese customers are already familiar with solar PV systems, with PV ads in all media channels. Ambitions and the potential are huge. A modest 30% growth rate per year will put Japan in the number 4 position with a size of around 3300 MW.

5. India

Probably one of the best places on earth for solar energy. The highest irradiance, high economic growth, permanent power shortage and no domestic natural energy sources – apart from abundant sunshine. All major markets have taken at least 3 years to build up their PV business infrastructures – and that is what is happening now in India.

In the coming years, cheap solar energy will become unavoidable for all energy utilities in India. BOS cost (labor, engineering, etc.) will be low in India, and with module costs coming down rapidly, there is no better alternative. The Indian PV market potential is infinite. In the long term, India is ready to become the world’s biggest PV market. It will just take a little more time. With an expected growth rate of at least 100%, putting them into position 5 for 2014.

6. China

Will the Chinese domestic PV market be smaller than the Indian market? The race might be close. But China might be more focused on industrial development and making money through export first, before developing its domestic market.

Irradiance in the relevant populated areas in India is better than in China, and in a situation of no subsidies the market will follow the sun. Besides, there are more power shortages to solve in sunnier India than there are in China. On the other hand, the financial power of China is better, and if the Government would provide the same loans for PV installations that they have for manufacturers, and in the same amounts, (billions of dollars), growth could be much higher.

Being more manufacturing-driven, we estimate that China will focus more on export and sales, and India will focus more on domestic energy supply.

7. Australia

In an overview of countries with huge solar energy potential, Australia cannot be excluded. Although still addicted to coal, Australia might see the (sun)light soon, as they increasingly discover the potential of this clean, reliable, predictable and cheap energy source.

On the map it looks like there is also plenty of space for ground-based solar PV power plants, it should be a natural choice for rapid market development. The Australian market is emerging and a solid 40% market growth per year will bring them into the Top 10 at place number 7 for 2014.

8. France

The time is over for nuclear power. Building new nuclear power plants is too high a (financial) risk. Financing a 20-year solar PPA contract is easier than financing a new nuclear site. Who wants to invest for another 40 years in such power plants, knowing solar and wind energy are favored by customers and voters alike, and will also be cheaper within 10 years?

Solar energy will be a natural choice for France. The French love their innovative products and business concepts. And the French like their independence. New players will find their way into solar. And customers love to be independent with their own energy source. Only a 30% year-on-year growth is sufficient to put France into the 8th position.

9. Spain

Yes, why should Spain not regain its place as top-of-the-market? After the burst of the PV bubble in 2009, Spain is crawling back up, and very soon it may no longer need subsidies to make solar PV affordable.

Energy prices are rising, and the companies that have survived are stronger and more experienced. Even more important, the Spanish banking sector has sufficient experience. Grid parity is close and Spain is Europe’s most logical and best-suited country for large-scale ground-based PV power plants. With a 30% market growth per year, Spain could end up 9th in the 2014 Top 10. Provided there is no economic meltdown in Europe, Spain could be the come-back king.

10. Greece

There needs to be at least one surprise in the Top 10. Greece is the silently but steadily growing market. Shadowed by its economic problems, the Greek market is doing well with over 200% growth per year since 2007. If it experienced just 40% growth in the coming years, it could suddenly enter the Top 10 in 2014.

No domestic energy resources other than abundant sunlight and rising energy prices will help to develop Greece into an attractive grid parity market. Just replacing fossil fuels by solar power from all the islands will not only cut costs but will provide a sustainable future again for Greece.

There is always room for more surprises. Who in 2007 would have expected the Czech Republic as the number 3 market in 2010? It only takes 3 years to develop a market and business infrastructure. So if countries like Brazil, Chile, South Africa, Israel and Morocco start next year, they could easily end up in the 2014 Top 10.

The above Top 10 is just a best guess. An interesting experiment to look back on in 2014, to see whether predicting the future is still impossible!

Source: SolarPlaza

According to the European Wind Energy Association (EWEA), the wind energy capacity in the EU will almost triple by 2020, with the total installed capacity reaching up to nearly 230 GW. At the end of 2010, about 84 GW have been installed in the EU.

Electricity output from wind power is likely to increase to 581 TWh by 2020, meeting 15.7% of the total EU demand, from 182 TWh or 5.5% of the total EU demand in 2010. By 2030, 1,154 TWh (28.5% of demand) is expected to be produced from wind energy as published in EWEA’s "Pure Power" report.

“We want the electricity of the future to be safe, but also to remain reliable and affordable,” Mrs. Merkel said in a statement on the government Web site announcing the change.

Mrs. Merkel has been grappling with the sudden deepening of German distrust of nuclear power since the March 11 earthquake and tsunami in Japan set off the world’s worst nuclear crisis since Chernobyl. Within days of the disaster, she reversed a pro-nuclear policy adopted just last year and temporarily shut down seven of Germany's older plants; one had been taken off line earlier.

But the move failed to persuade voters in the southwest state of Baden-Württemberg, where her party, the Christian Democrats, lost a stronghold it had held for more than five decades.

On Friday, state environment ministers agreed that the seven older plants should remain closed. The energy security commission endorsed that recommendation, and said the others should be phased out gradually.

However, the federal agency that regulates the power industry said Friday that losing even just the seven plants could make it difficult to cope with a failure in some part of the national power grid. The shutdown “brings networks to the limit of capacity,” the Federal Network Agency said.

The 48-page energy security report submitted Monday took an opposing view, saying the commission was “firmly convinced that an exit from nuclear energy can be achieved within a decade.”

Germany must make a binding national commitment, the commission said, adding, “Only a clearly delineated goal can provide the necessary planning and investment security.”

“The exit is necessary, and is recommended, in order to rule out the risks of nuclear power,” the commission said. “It is possible, because there are less risky alternatives.”

The commission added that “the exit should be designed so as not to endanger the competitiveness of industry and the economy.”

It identified wind, solar and water as alternatives, as well as geothermal energy and so-called biomass energy from waste, as alternative power sources.

Source: New York Times

This report on the global market outlook for solar photovoltaic, named “Solar Generation 6” foresees that PV could account for 12% of the European power demand by 2020, and up to 9% of the global power demand by 2030.

“Our goal is to make solar photovoltaic technology a mainstream power source through policy support at an optimal cost for consumers,” said Sven Teske, Senior Energy Expert at Greenpeace International. He added that, “Solar photovoltaic is a key technology for combating climate change; our research shows that it creates 35 to 50 jobs per tonne of CO2 savings and will increase the security of energy supply by reducing dependency on energy imports to Europe.”

“Solar photovoltaic technology has, for many years now, shown increased power efficiencies and cost reductions,” said Ingmar Wilhelm, President of EPIA. “Today’s cost predictions, driven also by economies of scale in light of global photovoltaic capacity, totaling 40,000 MW in 2010, show that the technology is on the brink of an economic breakthrough” Mr. Wilhelm added.

PV prices have dropped some 40% since 2005 and by 2015 the cost of PV systems is expected to drop by an additional 40% compared to current levels. As a result, PV systems will be able to compete with electricity prices for households in many countries of the European Union within the next five years.

“We aim to make this important phase of cost competitiveness visible, and EPIA will provide a realistic road-map for every country with clear concepts on market mechanisms allowing equal treatment of all electricity sources,” added the President of EPIA.

The report estimates that current global solar PV capacity could grow from over 36 GW at the end of 2010 to close to 180 GW by 2015. European PV capacity is expected to increase from over 28 GW in 2010 to nearly 100 GW by 2015, and has the potential to reach up to 350 GW on a global basis by 2020. This would save as much as 1.4 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions globally and 220 million tonnes within the EU every year(3).

In addition to its environmental benefits, the report shows solar energy to be a sustainable way to address concerns about energy security and volatile fossil fuel prices, as well as a substantial factor in economic development. The European PV industry, which already employs over 300,000 people, could provide jobs to over 600.000 by 2015, and has the potential to further increase to 1.6 million in 2020 if general policy support remains effective.

The “Solar Generation 6” report also highlights the enormous PV potential for Europe in the light of the Union’s established 20% renewable energy and the 20% energy efficiency target. Based on this potential for photovoltaic growth, the EU could easily increase its emission reduction target from the current 20% by 2020 to a more aggressive 30% level.

Source: EPIA.org